Should Leafs give up on Armstrong?

May 18, 2012 in Colby Armstrong, player analysis, WOWY by davidjohnson

Over at LeafNation.com, Cam Charron did a corsi-based analysis of Colby Armstrong and came up with mixed conclusions regarding his performance over the past several seasons. So, causes? What caused a player with pretty good possession statistics in Atlanta to completely fall off the map in the last two seasons? System? Trust? Role? A flaw [...]

Henrik Zetterberg Player Analysis

May 16, 2012 in Henrik Zetterberg, player evaluation by davidjohnson

I have written a few controversial pieces here at HockeyAnalysis.com (for example, my post on Luke Schenn back when Leaf fans thought Schenn was the best thing since sliced bread) and I suspect this might generate some controversy as well because of the conclusions made about Zetterberg’s weak defensive ability.  I also want to do [...]

Offense doesn’t win in the playoffs…

May 9, 2012 in defense wins, offense loses by davidjohnson

With just one series remaining to be won in the second round there have been 11 playoff series won so far in these playoffs so I decided to take a look at which teams won those playoff series and the results seem to be quite telling. The team that had the better regular season goals [...]

Zone Start effects on Goalie Save Percentage

April 26, 2012 in goalie evaluation, save percentage, zone start by davidjohnson

While doing my earlier post on Luongo’s value I noticed that Luongo’s 5v5close zone start adjusted save percentage relative to the rest of the league is much more mediocre than his 5v5 save percentage.  I decide to look into this further and realized that this is in large part due to zone start effects, and not [...]

Should anyone want Luongo?

April 26, 2012 in goaltender evaluation, middle of the road, roberto luongo, Vancouver by davidjohnson

One of the most significant stories of the first round of the playoffs is the early departure of the Vancouver Canucks and the resulting question mark surrounding Roberto Luongo’s future with the Canucks.  With young super prospect Cory Schneider out playing Luongo for arguably the second straight playoff it puts Luongo’s future with the Canucks [...]

On-ice shooting percentage is sustainable…

April 19, 2012 in fenwick, predictability, shooting percentage, sustainability, true talent by davidjohnson

Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins and I had a conversation over at MC79hockey.com where I predicted several players would combine for a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% while league average is just shy of 8.0%.  I documented this in a post prior to the season.  In short, I predicted the following: Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, [...]

State of the Leafs – Defense and Goaltending

April 17, 2012 in end of season evaluation by davidjohnson

Last week I took a look at the Leafs forwards, today I’ll take a look at their defense and goaltending.  As with the forwards, I’ll evaluate the defensemen using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARO+, HARD+ and HART+ ratings but with goalies I will evaluate them using their 5v5 zone start adjusted HARD+ rating and [...]

Head shots and player safety…

April 15, 2012 in CBA, head shots, media out rage, player safety by davidjohnson

We are less than a week into the playoffs and it seems the main story line of the playoffs so far has been head shots and general player safety whether it was the Shea Weber non-suspension or the number of dangerous hits and other ‘goonery’ that took place last night and it probably all started with [...]

State of the Leafs – Forwards

April 12, 2012 in player evaluation by davidjohnson

With the Maple Leafs season having ended early once again a it is time to take an honest and unbiased look at what the team has and what the team needs to get to improve.  This will be a multi-post endeavour that will start with this post which will be a statistical evaluation of the Leafs [...]

Thoughts on Burke press conference

April 10, 2012 in Brian burke by davidjohnson

Just listened to the Brian Burke press conference and I have to say it was a whole lot of nothing.  I’ll give Burke this summer to make some changes but based on that press conference I don’t have a lot of confidence in his assessment of the team. He talked a lot about how everything [...]