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On-ice shooting percentage is sustainable…

April 19, 2012 in fenwick, predictability, shooting percentage, sustainability, true talent by davidjohnson

Prior to the season Gabe Desjardins and I had a conversation over at MC79hockey.com where I predicted several players would combine for a 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage above 10.0% while league average is just shy of 8.0%.  I documented this in a post prior to the season.  In short, I predicted the following: Crosby, Gaborik, Ryan, [...]

Corsi vs Shooting %: Gomez vs Cammalleri

January 28, 2012 in fenwick, Michael Cammalleri, Scott Gomez, shooting percentage by davidjohnson

I have been having a discussion as to whether shot quality exists over at Pension Plan Puppets and more precisely whether certain players can drive a teams shooting percentage while they are on the ice.  As part of the discussion I brought up the on-ice shooting percentage differences between Scott Gomez and Michael Cammalleri and decided [...]

Can a Player Influence his Teammates Shooting Percentage?

December 9, 2011 in corsi failure, joe thornton, shooting percentage, sidney crosby by davidjohnson

Gabe Desjardins of Arctic Ice Hockey asks the question about whether a player can influence his teammates shooting percentage.  To answer this question he took a look at the Pittsburgh Penguins shooting percentages with and without Mario Lemieux.  The conclusion: I’d posit that Lemieux’s playmaking contribution is about as large as we’re going to consistently [...]

Showing Shooting Percentage Matters (Yet Again)

November 22, 2011 in fenwick, player evaluation, shooting percentage by davidjohnson

I hate to keep beating the “Shooting Percentage Matters” drum but it really dumbfounds me why so many people choose to ignore it, or believe it is only a small part of the game and not worth considering and instead focus their attention on corsi/fenwick, and corsi/fenwick derived stats as their primary evaluation too. It [...]

Showing Shooting Percentage Matters (Yet Again)

November 22, 2011 in fenwick, player evaluation, shooting percentage by davidjohnson

I hate to keep beating the “Shooting Percentage Matters” drum but it really dumbfounds me why so many people choose to ignore it, or believe it is only a small part of the game and not worth considering and instead focus their attention on corsi/fenwick, and corsi/fenwick derived stats as their primary evaluation too. It [...]

Some Thoughts on Shot Quality

October 27, 2011 in player evaluation, shooting percentage by davidjohnson

There has been a fair bit of discussion going on regarding shot quality the past few weeks among the hockey stats nuts.  It started with this article about defense independent goalie rating (DIGR) in the wall street journal and several others have chimed in on the discussion so it is my turn. Gabe Desjardins has [...]

More stats than you’d ever want (I hope)…

August 21, 2011 in advanced hockey statistics, fenwick, statistics by davidjohnson

I have just updated my stats site (stats.hockeyanalysis.com) to include a number of new features.  The added features are: 1.  I have added a new situation – 5v5close.  5v5close is when the game is tied or within 1 goal in the first and second period or tied in the third period.  This is what I [...]

Some Names for Gabe

July 19, 2011 in shooting percentage, statistical analysis. save percentage by davidjohnson

An interesting statistical debate sprung up today started by Tom Benjamin who wrote about his skepticism of the Corsi statistic.  In it Tom comments on the fact that Ryan Kesler and Ryan Clowe ranked so highly in corsi in response to Greg Ballentine’s posts at The Puck Stops Here. Greg’s examples, it seems to me, [...]

Brendan Morrison and the failure of Corsi

July 16, 2011 in Brendan Morrison, Calgary Flames, corsi failure by davidjohnson

Last night after news came out that Brendan Morrison had re-signed with the Calgary Flames, Kent Wilson tweeted the following: Morrison back in Calgary. Check out his corsi tied rating fellow stats nerds: http://bit.ly/q1ywUj The link is to the Calgary Flames 5v5 game tied corsi ratings which show Morrison had a 0.452 corsi rating (Corsi [...]

How I Evaluate Players (and Why)

July 12, 2011 in Brad Richards, fenwick, goal analysis, player evaluation by davidjohnson

Over the past couple of weeks I have had several comment discussions regarding some of my recent posts on player evaluation and Norris and Hart trophy candidates which centered around which is a better method for evaluating players:  corsi vs goal based evaluation.  A lot of people, maybe the majority of those within the advanced [...]